NAB 2024 - predictions?

Will we see a camera from BMD?

Will Nikon and Atomos, who's stands are next to each other this year, announce REDcode in Atomos monitors?

Will anything else exciting happen?

I would say that Atomos is stuck in no mans land.
Their role is diminishing. Low cost and high performance monitors are plentyful and the importance of third party external recorders is not what it used to be and I have a hard time seeing any future for them as everyone is heading to internal raw recording.
They bought TCS but I'm not sure that will help them.

I hope that Nikon will put up some Cine lenses on display - Z only and a PLTZ perhaps.
Would be a bomb if they displayed a Nikon C9 Cinema box style.
Question would be if they went REDcode or N-RAW. Is N-RAW left out to die?

My prediction is an URSA Full Frame. Massive improvements over the 6K Full Frame in the Pocket body. Possibly some updates to the URSA body design. Possibly updates to the Viewfinder and Video Assist. As far as the URSA Full Frame sensor: 16K VistaVision based off the 12K RGB sensor. Dual CFExpress Type B Card Slots. Simultaneously records proxies that will upload to the Cloud via a Camera to Cloud feature...

For sure DaVinci Resolve 19! It's going to be huge! Get instant access to the 16K VistaVision URSA's Proxies via the Camera to Cloud.

BMD has an 8K mixer, an 8K recorder, Ultimatte 8K, the logic would be to offer an 8K camera.
Especially after the constellation update

Some others updates Teranex AV, 2110 infra,... are welcome too

I'd really like to see a 4k equivalent of the UltraStudio Monitor 3G.

Imo, it's more than a little ridiculous that the cheapest 4k non-pcie based monitoring hardware that BM sells is the UltraStudio 4K Mini at $1,055 USD.

I'd really like to see a 4k equivalent of the UltraStudio Monitor 3G.

Imo, it's more than a little ridiculous that the cheapest non-pcie based monitoring hardware that BM sells is the UltraStudio 4K Mini at $1,055 USD.

+1.000.000

It's the one thing I really hope for, too.
I could use a box right now but I'm not buying one that's limited to HD anymore and neither one that costs $1k.

That would be an instant buy for me as well, especially if it's silent. In fact I'd get more than one.

My prediction is an URSA Full Frame...As far as the URSA Full Frame sensor: 16K VistaVision based off the 12K RGB sensor. Dual CFExpress Type B Card Slots...
For sure DaVinci Resolve 19! It's going to be huge! Get instant access to the 16K VistaVision URSA's Proxies via the Camera to Cloud.

This would be very exciting. What kind of lens support would that be? I would assume L mount which I don't have, but could I adapt or use PL glass meant for S35 formats?

A lot of people will be looking for a significant update to the Blackmagic Camera app. Alongside that, there should be interesting announcements about hardware support for the iPhone 15.

My prediction is an URSA Full Frame...As far as the URSA Full Frame sensor: 16K VistaVision based off the 12K RGB sensor. Dual CFExpress Type B Card Slots...
For sure DaVinci Resolve 19! It's going to be huge! Get instant access to the 16K VistaVision URSA's Proxies via the Camera to Cloud.

This would be very exciting. What kind of lens support would that be? I would assume L mount which I don't have, but could I adapt or use PL glass meant for S35 formats?

I’m always going to use PL glass. I have PL glass that covers VistaVision in my prime set. The zooms are Super 35, but any Blackmagic Full Frame will have a S35 window mode. If 16K then 12K window.

I’d venture to guess a PL interchangeable mount system like they have had. Maybe L Mount with PL, but if native L it needs to have secure locks for the PL Mount and data connectors for the PL in order to get /i Technology from the PL. I’d rather they just skip L and stick to PL and the same interchangeable system they had in past. Maybe LPL since PL to LPL works for ARRI.


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I think the consumers feel a bit in no man’s land right now with options.
The market is saturated, yet feels something is missing.
The Burano seemed promising but the price puts it way outside of many budgets.
Nikon buying Red, people still putting out BMD camera hack builds…

I think BMD is primed for a release that will make waves.
Whatever it is, I hope it’s available soon! Haha

I think BMD is primed for a release that will make waves.

For that imo they need new body designs.

The 12K might have rocked the industry if it were just 8K (strange but true imo) in a brand new, smaller body. The BMCC6K should have never been put in that - already quite controversial - 'Pocket' body to start with but it probably was the cheapest and most instantaneous thing to do.

It feels like BMD are reluctant to design new bodies (and their accessories) because of costs, I just don't know if that's a good strategy (for much longer).

Anyways, I just hope for a simple, affordable 4K version of UltraStudio Monitor.

I think the consumers feel a bit in no man’s land right now with options.
The market is saturated, yet feels something is missing.
The Burano seemed promising but the price puts it way outside of many budgets.
Nikon buying Red, people still putting out BMD camera hack builds…

I think BMD is primed for a release that will make waves.
Whatever it is, I hope it’s available soon! Haha

I've seen some reviews of the Burano where the complaints about the rolling shutter are a major sticking point. Especially in a $25K camera body. Then there's the output options and the hoops you have to go through to do certain things with video output.

So I think Blackmagic is primed for big waves as well. They have had 4-Years to perfect the 12K Sensor, and now 7-Years with the URSA Mini Pro body. If you count the years with the URSA Mini body then we hit 8. It's 10-Years since the introduction of the URSA.

Is it time for new camera bodies? Yes. Improved sensors? Yes. We definitely need a VistaVision/Full-Frame sensor in an URSA body.

RED has proven global shutter is achievable without massive reduction in dynamic range and as well with good base ISO and higher ISO capabilities. So Blackmagic could return to Global Shutter.

No matter what I think the elephant in the room is DaVinci Resolve. With that Ace in the Sleeve software Blackmagic is poised to be able to make their next generation cameras brilliant. The integration between camera and post-software is where the strongest connections will be. This is why I believe we're going to see a Camera to Cloud feature.

I want a Lidar module.

I want a Lidar module.

I'd love the 3D Waveform that DJI sends thought their chain (Lidar >wireless transmission > monitors).

I wish others would sport that feature, I never use the term 'game changer' but that 3D Waveform is gold for pulling focus.

I want a Lidar module.

I'd love the 3D Waveform that DJI sends thought their chain (Lidar >wireless transmission > monitors).

I wish others would sport that feature, I never use the term 'game changer' but that 3D Waveform is gold for pulling focus.

I love that feature but I would never buy a full Ronin just for that.

A new Ursa seems overdue

I fear this isn't going to be the year. Too close to BMCC6K and OLPF Ursa Mini 12K.

Unless of course their next offering isn't a replacement for either, but something else entirely.

I hope it is not lidar. It seems so like an invention of Edison in a world of Tesla.

I guess you are comparing Lidar to AF. They are different and can do different things. Lidar can autofocus in any light situation, even darkness but more than that, it can scan the area and send 3D data. For video work more interesting is that it can send 3D waveform for visual, real time representation of where the lens' focus is. This is great for AC's (or anyone pulling focus manually).

2119-LidarWaveform-LidarWaveform.jpg (563.31 KiB) Viewed 15079 times

I agree integration of LiDAR would be a very appealing feature of a new camera and/or updated Focus Assist.

Letus
Brevis
Redrock M2 Micro-X
Lidar

= Rube Goldberg

More sensible to add this to U12k:

-gyro metadata

I'm SO hoping for some good new stuff for NAB. Like others, a 6-8K body built to be rigged, with decent dynamic range. Wouldn't have to be insane, just decently wide.

Maybe Lachman options for monitoring.

Sure wouldn't object to lidar ...

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Look at the new sticky post for Camera 8.6 beta.

Look at the new sticky post for Camera 8.6 beta.

WHOA!!!!

So yeah, Camera 2 Cloud for future cameras for sure.

BMD has an 8K mixer, an 8K recorder, Ultimatte 8K, the logic would be to offer an 8K camera.
Especially after the constellation update

Some others updates Teranex AV, 2110 infra,... are welcome too

So... you missed the 12K, eh?

But for those broadcast devices the 12K has a UHD SDI output.

My prediction is an URSA Full Frame. Massive improvements over the 6K Full Frame in the Pocket body. Possibly some updates to the URSA body design. Possibly updates to the Viewfinder and Video Assist. As far as the URSA Full Frame sensor: 16K VistaVision based off the 12K RGB sensor. Dual CFExpress Type B Card Slots. Simultaneously records proxies that will upload to the Cloud via a Camera to Cloud feature...

For sure DaVinci Resolve 19! It's going to be huge! Get instant access to the 16K VistaVision URSA's Proxies via the Camera to Cloud.

I still this the odds are even regarding a full frame Ursa Mini. I wouldn't expect BMD to revive the Ursa design; it was a crash and burn the first time around because it was a fit for entirely the wrong audience, and the audience that it would have appealed to was too busy with the Alexas and has moved on to the Alexa Minis and Venice.

Resolve 19 probably an open beta release, and we'll find out that Warren Eagles has been grading films in it for two months already

But there's pretty much always a Resolve update at NAB.

Nikon cine lenses and a cine body? I think it's too early. Prototypes maybe?

But for those broadcast devices the 12K has a 4K SDI output.

I have a feeling that the 8K craze has slowed... as has the full frame craze, though it's probable that both crazes are dying due to the industry holds from the pandemic, the strikes, and studios' self-inflicted financial woes.

So far where is there 8K broadcast outside of Japan?

Since has been more emphasis on cloud productions, I am hoping they will update the iphone app to support braw. Wishful thinking.

Since has been more emphasis on cloud productions, I am hoping they will update the iphone app to support braw. Wishful thinking.

Even Braw playback on iPhone would be great. Record to SSD, plug it into iPhone / iPad and watch the footage.

I'm still hoping for BMD to cut into the audio recorder market with TC and some really nice ecosystem wide features.

I’m still figuring out how camera to cloud workflows work with my setup. It’s cool, but unnecessary for me.

BUT I really hope this is a sign of a new camera release around the corner. If all BMD has at NAB is a “cloudy” 6k FF… I just don’t know.

I’m still figuring out how camera to cloud workflows work with my setup. It’s cool, but unnecessary for me.

BUT I really hope this is a sign of a new camera release around the corner. If all BMD has at NAB is a “cloudy” 6k FF… I just don’t know.

Yeah. I was talking with a colleague the other day. Sony FX6 & FX9 combo is really nice for a lot of stuff these days. And, sometimes it is what clients are asking for. If there are Mark 2 versions of both at NAB some of my colleagues will be making the switch.

The Camera 2 Cloud stuff is great. But it already has taken a lot to get various clients on either Drop Box or Google Drive. Blackmagic Cloud is extremely pricey, and very niche. It still is taking a lot to get people to leave Premiere. And, Clients can be even slower sometimes. Just the other month I had a client that still edits in Final Cut.

Still, I have faith we're about to see some big updates for the URSA line. Either a new line with a new name. Or some great new features and improvements in the URSA line. We'll see.

Imo camera2cloud is so niche it's more of a gimmick for the vast majority.
What really would benefit the workflow are...new, improved camera bodies

Who’s the most successful camera maker out there - at least in the pro space? Arri with the Alexa. They were late to the digital game but they made a simple camera that just worked and worked beautifully. Better pixels rather than more features. Ease of use. Dependability. In the end these things win the game.

BMD already makes a great picture. People have called it a baby Alexa. IMHO the most winning strategy would be to push on that by addressing its weaknesses relative to the Alexa. And employ a similar approach to Resolve.

Blackmagic Design is a business. Blackmagic Cloud is aimed at a niche market only in the sense that the potential clients have money

Agreed! Question though: can they pull off the complex thing they’re trying for in a robust enough manner that those with deep pockets will choose it over other solutions? I’m impressed with the scope of the endeavor but haven’t seen sufficient stability in the core product which I think is Resolve to expect they can do it. I do hope they prove me wrong!

Agreed! Question though: can they pull off the complex thing they’re trying for...!

I think that it’s a significant challenge. Adobe has deep pockets and Frame.io has been building its video collaboration platform for 9 years. Blackmagic is pretty late to the party.

I’d like to know how the market breaks down in terns of segments. How much of it is news organizations? Feature films? Television series? Advertising? Etc.

...a simple camera that just worked and worked beautifully. Better pixels rather than more features. Ease of use...

This is all we want. We prefer craftsmanship over "revolutions."

...a simple camera that just worked and worked beautifully. Better pixels rather than more features. Ease of use...

This is all we want. We prefer craftsmanship over "revolutions."

Agree, but...with Resolve BMD show a tendency to rather work on new features than fix and improve what's already there, even if badly needed/requested.

BMCC 6K still using the quirky, old Pocket body underlines that tendency.

They have been great and frustrating at the same time in recent years.

the biggest thing I take away from their product release videos is that they strive to keep costs low to the consumer. Which I am extremely grateful for! I'd rather have a L-Mount, Full Frame 6k camera with the older form-factor NOW than no camera whatsoever.

I have to assume that if they release a new body design, it will inevitably be more expensive at first.
Take the 12k for example. It was priced near $10k and then they lowered it to around $6k because it was now more affordable for them to manufacture it.

Who’s the most successful camera maker out there - at least in the pro space? Arri with the Alexa. They were late to the digital game but they made a simple camera that just worked and worked beautifully. Better pixels rather than more features. Ease of use. Dependability. In the end these things win the game.

BMD already makes a great picture. People have called it a baby Alexa. IMHO the most winning strategy would be to push on that by addressing its weaknesses relative to the Alexa. And employ a similar approach to Resolve.

And an Alexa runs from $55K+ to over $100K, not including accessories, and is sold mostly to rental houses, not individuals. Needless to say, BMD is not Arri's competition. The consumer end is where its competition is, with cameras becoming more and more generic, and differences in image quality disappearing.

And it must be said, consumers are no help. An 2.5K camera with better image quality than anything at 4 or 6K wouldn't sell enough units to sustain a mass-market price, because everybody needs to "future proof" all the masterpieces they'll never make.

Similarly, look at Resolve. Of the 5 pages, Color is the only industry standard application, probably because professional facilities support it with $30K+ in hardware sales per workstation. If BMD wanted Edit to prevail in Hollywood, as opposed to providing an "all-in-one" to customers who buy its cameras, it wouldn't be devoting its time to Cut....

I have to assume that if they release a new body design, it will inevitably be more expensive at first.
Take the 12k for example. It was priced near $10k and then they lowered it to around $6k because it was now more affordable for them to manufacture it.

I'm not sure I agree. The 12K had the same body as the 4.6K which was released in 2016. So body R&D had no influence on the price drop.

I assume it just didn't sell well at $10K.

… 2.5K camera with better image quality than anything at 4 or 6K wouldn't sell enough units to sustain a mass-market price, because everybody needs to "future proof" all the masterpieces they'll never make...

Along those lines, I like the BMPCC4K 2688 lines of resolution for Super 16 capture used to deliver HD video which is all my clients request. It would be a daring experiment in 2024 to offer a new camera supporting similar resolutions open gate on a traditional Super 35 sensor with a pitch of 9.26 microns (four times the area of the BMPCC4K) in a BMCC2K branding. I think those photosites would be larger than the early ARRI. In for a penny in for a pound? A full frame sensor with 13 micron photosites?

the biggest thing I take away from their product release videos is that they strive to keep costs low to the consumer. Which I am extremely grateful for! I'd rather have a L-Mount, Full Frame 6k camera with the older form-factor NOW than no camera whatsoever.

I have to assume that if they release a new body design, it will inevitably be more expensive at first.
Take the 12k for example. It was priced near $10k and then they lowered it to around $6k because it was now more affordable for them to manufacture it.

Agreed! And, I’m fine with a new camera release in a new design being more expensive and then coming down in price.

When I bought the 2.5K over a decade ago it was perfectly timed for when the price dropped from $3K to $2K. That allowed me to spend a little more on Media. I was coming from a Canon 7D, so it wasn’t just the camera I was buying but the whole ecosystem.

They kept the Full Frame 6K price down by using the Pocket G2 body build, but still changed internal a bit and went to CFExpress. Thus it being $2.6K in price is incredible!


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… 2.5K camera with better image quality than anything at 4 or 6K wouldn't sell enough units to sustain a mass-market price, because everybody needs to "future proof" all the masterpieces they'll never make...

Along those lines, I like the BMPCC4K 2688 lines of resolution for Super 16 capture used to deliver HD video which is all my clients request. It would be a daring experiment in 2024 to offer a new camera supporting similar resolutions open gate on a traditional Super 35 sensor with a pitch of 9.26 microns (four times the area of the BMPCC4K) in a BMCC2K branding. I think those photosites would be larger than the early ARRI. In for a penny in for a pound? A full frame sensor with 13 micron photosites?

I think Sony's 4k full frame sensor on the fx3/fx6 and Arri's 6.075 micron photosites in the Alexa 35 are both very sensible. Arri because 6.075 micron means 4k is exactly super 35 specifications, to the micron. Sony did the same for full frame.

Bigger photosites mean, in theory, higher ISO and better dynamic range. But I think 4k is such a standard it would be bad business to make an interchangeable lens camera with less resolution than that.

I also think it's odd so many cameras are 6k, I don't think there's a visual difference between 6k and 4k images. 6k is safer for people who do manipulations in post, reframing or keying. But I feel like most black magic shooters are just turning the footage over directly to the final product.

Now that they seem to have embraced including an OLPF, Blackmagic's weakest point is rolling shutter, which is also helped by having less resolution.

Which is a long way to say, I'd like to see a new 4k sensor.

Who’s the most successful camera maker out there - at least in the pro space? Arri with the Alexa. They were late to the digital game but they made a simple camera that just worked and worked beautifully. Better pixels rather than more features. Ease of use. Dependability. In the end these things win the game.

BMD already makes a great picture. People have called it a baby Alexa. IMHO the most winning strategy would be to push on that by addressing its weaknesses relative to the Alexa. And employ a similar approach to Resolve.

And an Alexa runs from $55K+ to over $100K, not including accessories, and is sold mostly to rental houses, not individuals. Needless to say, BMD is not Arri's competition. The consumer end is where its competition is, with cameras becoming more and more generic, and differences in image quality disappearing.

I think we’re misunderstanding each other John. My Arri example was meant to be an illustration of Arri and how they beat their competition - not of suggesting that Arri and BMD are in competition.

Arri and BMD have one core competency in common: image quality. They also SOMETIMES have another: simplicity. BMD’s camera menu system has been touted as industry leading in simplicity and ease of use.

But BMD does not treat simplicity and ease of use as a core competency. Resolve is the opposite of that. Plus Arri treats reliability as a core competency but BMD appears not to.

I’m just suggesting prioritizing those things as a means toward success rather than innovating in complex workflows that require more development resources and are more suited to a company the size of Adobe

Arri have not "beaten" their competition; the preferred brand among elite users certainly, but annual sales are about equal to B&H Photo, and to say they are dwarfed by Sony would be disrespectful to dwarfs.