Totally stuck - what camera to buy...?

Guys, I'm seriously desperate and totally stuck in my decision process. I hope, somebody could help me a bit out here.
I'm an amateur filmmaker who is currently trying to go professional. My primary focus is on docs, mostly wildlife and nature stuff but I do the occasional ad or image film. As of now, I'm shooting on Canon DSLR and I do have a nice rig with external power and audio recording solutions.
I have been wanting a BMD camera since they first came out and by the looks of it, I can now finally come up with the budget for one. On a side note, I'm very fixed on EF glass because I do have invested in that already and also use it for photography.

So, from my research I came up with these arguments for/against the cams I'm considering so far:

BMCC2.5k
+ More or less drop-in replacement for my DSLR in my rig
+ Dynamic range
+ Price
+ Uses SSD
+ Rugged housing
- Moirè (?)
- 2.5k

BMPC4k
+ More or less drop-in replacement for my DSLR in my rig
+ 4k
+ Uses SSD
+ Rugged housing
- Less dynamic range than BMCC2.5k
- V1 sensor (FPN, etc.)

Ursa Mini 4k
+ Form factor
+ 4k
- Less dynamic range than BMCC2.5k
- CFast
- Not very rugged (weather, dust, dirt)
- Many additional investments needed (cards, reader, EVF, Shoulder mount kit, etc.)

Ursa Mini 4.6k
+ Crazy dynamic range and image quality
+ Form factor
- Price
- CFast
- Not very rugged (weather, dust, dirt)
- Many additional investments needed (cards, reader, EVF, Shoulder mount kit, etc.)
- Ever available?

So, I'm really stuck here. Each camera has it's advantages and disadvantages in a way that none of them seems "the perfect choice" for me. So I was hoping that maybe somebody here who has hands-on experience with some of the cameras and maybe a similar use case, could enlighten me and provide some additional arguments to make my choice easier.

And I really want a BMD camera because of ProRes and RAW capabilities.

-S

You've done a fair assessment of the cameras. However, I see that you have left out the Pocket Cinema Camera, which in my opinion still might be one of BMD's best cameras (considering the price).

Since you haven't listed a budget, I'll assume your budget allows for the UM 4.6K. I don't want to talk you out of the URSA Mini 4.6K because it looks to be BMD's best camera (based on what the beta testers are saying). No doubt, I don't think you'd be disappointed if you went that route.

Personally, I have the URSA Mini 4K and a BMPCC with Metabones EF Speedbooster [and plan on adding a video assist]. With this combo, I have the following:
-4K up to 60p in global shutter UM4K
-120p in windowed HD (global shutter) UM4K
-Form factor UM4K & BMPCC (when being discrete is needed)
-13 stops dynamic range (HD "only") when needed. BMPCC
-Low light (not NO light). BMPCC with Speedbooster
-SD cards. BMPCC and Video Assist (can use VA with UM4K up to 1080 60p via SDI)

This is just my personal experience, and I'm sure I left out some stuff in that list. Unless HD is completely out of the question for you, I'd consider a BMPCC OR Micro Cinema Camera (when available). The BMPCC is an incredible little camera.

I own the BMPC 4K and Packet Cam,Canon 5D Mk3, Sony A7s ii and GH4

For run and Gun the A7s and Gh4 are my go to and wildlife and nature stuff.

for better Codec in 4K and grading i Love the BMPC 4K and there is also Flimic look i shoot mostly TV AD with this Cam

the Packet cam is my Gem very flimic image, use it on some TV ads also most times i like what i get out of it over all my other cams

for you i would say use the Ursa Mini 4K but note it's not a low light Cam that baby needs light

Here's my opinion for what it's worth: If you can afford it (including the computer power and storage needed to handle the files), go for the Ursa Mini 4.6k. (which I'm assuming won't have any cast issues in the shipped camera that has been observed in some sample footage) But, if you need to stick to a lower budget, get the BMCC 2.5k. This is still an awesome camera and exceptional value and it has what many consider to be the most filmic image out of the whole line, with the possible exception of the new 4.6k, but that still remains to be seen consistently IMO. The other middle priced options are certainly good, but my thinking is either go for the best or save the money and make the best out of the best value camera. Another option you might want to consider is picking up the BM Pocket camera and Metabones EF adapter. This is a wonderful camera who's image is nearly as good as the BMCC, but is much cheaper and extremely flexible because of it's size. But you will have to factor in an external battery power option as the internal battery life is awful. Plus this will make a great B camera should you ever purchase the Mini 4.6k.

Thanks for the thoughts so far. Yes, I did leave the Pocket out intentionally because it records on SD and with a speed booster, the price is not much cheaper than the BMCC2.5k.
One of my budget models would be to get a BMPC4K plus a Pocket as B-cam.
My budget would be probably good for a UM4.6k but if I wanted the BMEVF also, it might get tight - depends on the street price of the stuff when it arrives in Finland.

Edit:
HD is not out of the question and to be honest, also with the 4/4.6k camera, I would probably work mostly in HD. But I do like the additional detail A LOT, especially, as I have some "furry friends" which I visit (and film) regularly and more detail is better .

with a speed booster, the price is not much cheaper than the BMCC2.5k.

The speed booster is great, but it is certainly an optional accessory for the Pocket Camera. I have the pocket and do not have it, but without it does limit the wide end of what is possible if you stick with just EF lenses. As long as you can get somewhere around 20mm-25mm you will have a "normal" field of view. However, for telephoto work, the pocket is amazing! And I have never had any issues with Sandisk SD cards. But certainly as a "B" camera which you pointed out, it is a no brainer! Cool shots and project you are doing with the wolves! Good luck!

Hmm, right, the telephoto aspect... Totally forgot that... Thanks, that's a really good point! I do have some vintage manual Minolta MD glass, including a 70-200 f/4 which I use a lot for shooting birds at the moment. That should work quite nicely with the Pocket - with an adapter, of course.
Looks like I'm going for a BMPC4k and a Pocket then... . Or UM4k...?

as pointed out already several times in here I know how you feel...

I myself have doubts what camera I should buy. I own a BMCC right now. I bought a BMPC march 2014 after it came out and immediately gave it back to the dealer, first of all as it wasn't capable recording in RAW at that time and second I had really bad FPN. After URSA came out this camera wasn't an option, not at all, as it was too big and heavy and it used those mindless CFast cards...

After they presented URSA mini (4.6k) last april I thought, OK, the camera has some problems, but the form factor and weight is OK and the 4.6k sensor seems incredible. If the camera came out in summer (August/september) I would have bought one, also as I could have used it with some clients. But the camera didn't come and it still won't come the nest weeks and maybe months... So there are still the problems, all over the CFast cards, that it isn't upgradeable/doesn't have a exchangeable lens mount and regarding some first test shots seen in the forum the last days, it seems also has to deal with a FPN problem. So the camera is not so really what I would really want. (I already pointed out that those problems could be solves quite easily by BMD in another thread ans how the perfect cam could look like and if they were clever they do so and present a new, mindblowing cam at NAB2016 that let me buy it immediatly after it's delivered - and if they are really really clever, they already solved their problem that let all the products delay so long and hired a lot of new staff so that they can work on the problems more intensely)

And that means for me: not to buy a URSA mini, nor anything else, until I see what will be presented in April at NAB - maybe not only by BMD!

I would suggest the same for you: Wait what is coming up next and look at the pros/cons again in around 3 months when we know what is coming up from BMD (sony, canon, aja, kinefinity, RED etc etc...)

Go with a 4k camera. They are working on releasing a 4k blu ray player likely this year and you could possibly be seeing a lot more 4k footage being wanted/playable.

I would not get the ursa mini 4k because of the issues with the lines in footage that many have posted until Blackmagic confirms a fix. I would get the Gh4 and invest in production equipment around it like lights, audio, etc. if you're a newer filmmaker without these things. Or go for the 4.6k. But be prepared to see it price drop possibly this year and wipe out $1k in value on you right after you buy it. If you're ok with that to get in early on it, you better have something to shoot to make it worthwhile.

Go with a 4k camera. They are working on releasing a 4k blu ray player likely this year and you could possibly be seeing a lot more 4k footage being wanted/playable.

I would not get the ursa mini 4k because of the issues with the lines in footage that many have posted until Blackmagic confirms a fix. I would get the Gh4 and invest in production equipment around it like lights, audio, etc. if you're a newer filmmaker without these things. Or go for the 4.6k. But be prepared to see it price drop possibly this year and wipe out $1k in value on you right after you buy it. If you're ok with that to get in early on it, you better have something to shoot to make it worthwhile.

He said he wanted a BMD camera because of ProRes/raw recording, so a GH4 probably isn't what he is after. I've not had any lines issues with my URSA Mini 4K yet.

You will not be disappointed with the Pocket Cam.. they only reason to go for 4.6K is if you need that resolution. Otherwise, the Pocket or 2.5K is perfect for budget or quality..

Side Note: I wouldn't say the URSA isn't rugged, it's just "less" rugged than other options because of the vents. The 2.5K is certainly not weathersealed at all..

Deciding which camera should be about tenth on your list of decisions if you are going professional for the first time. There are more important questions to ask which will then lead you to the correct camera.

Who will be your target audience? I will assume it is not for theatrical release which is rare for a nature doc with the exception of March of the Penguins and a few others. How will your audience be reached - internet via streaming? Download via sales? Broadcast TV via cable or networks? If you know the audience and distribution what are the specs required for delivery of final video?

How will you handle the huge amount of data that docs require? Typically docs shoot 4 or 5 times more than fiction because they are unscripted. Countless times you will be recording for 30 or 40 minutes waiting for something to happen (I know I have). I shot a seven episode doc series in Japan this last two years and carried 12Tb of portable drives with me at all times and these had to be copied to the studio drives every two weeks. The portable drives were duplicated every evening after shooting to another set of drives. Try shooting in Raw and you will understand the point I am making. Even Prores HQ can overwhelm you unless you are well financed. Did you check the cost of recording media for the Ursa Mini?
There is a reason why so many doc filmmakers use AVCHD and now XAVC 4k for recording, which is what I use.

Invariably nature docs means traveling which is what I do. I travel in Asia for six months out of the year and all your equipment has to be fail-safe or duplicated. I take two cameras and have assistants because I have been doing this for 25 years and finally making a good living. The equipment takes a huge beating just like nature intended. Just four weeks ago I was in Bali filming in the rice fields in six inches of water standing in a deep rut. The camera tumbled 50 feet down the hill but was still recording when I got there and picked it up from the waterlogged ground. But luckily it was my A7sII and not my FS7. Are you prepared to do that when all your money is invested in one camera only?

I bring up these few points because doing this for a living does not just mean getting a good camera with wide DR. It means getting the right camera that is good for your business and that means making a profit.

Jon, you make some good points. Quite a few of those I already have covered with experience from my last 2 years of amateur film making, including and especially the data storage process when travelling. I also have a plan for the next 2-3 years on how to proceed with my gear. And yes, I did check the cost of recording media for the UM . That's why CFast is a minus point in my lists .

As for the "right camera", my decision is based on my plans how to establish my "trademark". I believe, the competition in the doc market is nowadays very extreme and you have to come up with something different to get the EPs to buy YOUR stuff. A good example for such being different is Gordon Buchanan who not only goes right in the middle of the animals he is filming but he is filming wildlife docs for TV on Arri. His "Snow wolf family and me" is probably the most beautiful and touching wolf doc I have ever seen.

That's why CFast is a minus point in my lists .

And that's one of the reasons why I cancelled my plans of buying a URSA mini... BMD did a big mistake in my eyes going from SSD to CFast, a lot potential client's won't buy the cam just because of the media price. They would do good presenting something like a URSA 2 (with URSA mini form factor) at next NAB with exchangeable storage unit so that the clients can chose weather they use CFast or SSD

The BM range of cameras are not suited to outdoor nature photography no matter how much you wish or hope. The BMPC4k is a terrible choice. There are far better cameras out there for this type of work.

BM are more suited to controlled light situations. BM do not handle low light well - in fact are lousy. And in daylight you have no ND's so you have to use filters.

This is just one factor against using them for docs. I tried, trust me and shot with the BMPC2.5k and 4k for a few docs. But I have a team with me and audio and all the heavy rigging is done by assistants. I also have access to gobs of cash and the media solution on one doc alone can cost the price of the camera itself.

I have now gone back to Sony and almost every problem and negative factor went away for me. The camera will not set you apart from any competition - if it did we would all be doing well because I can easily afford the best there is. You need to find something more unique than choice of camera. Invariably in docs that means going where no one has gone before... going that bit extra or finding content that has been undiscovered (more difficult as each day goes by).

While I can follow some of your arguments, Sony isn't really an option for me. An FS7 is way beyond my budget and while the A7S(II) is an interesting camera, it's not gonna be my "A"-camera for different reasons.
The other thing with XAVC is that seemingly it doesn't play well with Resolve and Adobe is completely out of the question for me. And then there is the fact that XAVC is only 8 Bit wide. At the moment, I'm shooting on Canon full frame, mostly with the factory h.264 (in Cinestyle profile), in recent times also more often with Magic Lantern Raw (MLV). That works pretty ok but I simply want better quality in my material, i.e. more detail and more DR.

Then, pull out the stops and go for a URSA Mini 4.6!

I recommend URSA Mini 4.6 for you.