Okay I will start it - NAB 2018 Predictions

Since I am not seeing another thread where there usually is one this time of year, and it is getting so close to the time. I think it will be new Fairlight panels and Resolve 15 with support for the new Fairlight panels. I think we just saw the new cameras released this year with the broadcast camera.

URSA TURRET

DaVinci Resolve 15 adds numerous new editing features, Fairlight audio mixing features, and some more color tools. Resolve 15 is so impressive that it makes everyone in the industry switch over to it as the main NLE in all post houses. Text graphics are greatly improved. Graphics integration even better and rivals Adobe's Motion Graphic Templates for After Effects & Premiere Pro. Avid and Premiere cease to be used.

Fusion gets a huge performance improvement and many new features. Graphics templates can be made for use in Resolve. Maya Lite comes with Fusion for building 3D assets.

New 4.6K Sensor that is Global Shutter and 15 stops of dynamic range at a base ISO of 800. Ability to go to 3200 ISO. GPS & Gyroscope successfully added to this new URSA Mini Pro 2.0 camera that has the new 4.6K sensor. Built in wireless monitoring that works with...

Video Assists 2.0: 5" & 7" sizes that both have the ability to do wireless monitoring. Attachable sun hoods.

Blackmagic HDR 17" Monitor for on set monitoring. Additionally Blackmagic 24" & 30" color grading monitors that support Rec709, P3, and Rec2020 HDR (HDR10+ & Dolby Vision). Calibration of monitor made easy with DaVinci Resolve 15.

I could keep dreaming up some awesome products. But I think I'll let others come up with wish list items.

I've recently sold off much of my audio/band/music equipment in hopes to buy some camera gear.

I'm going to wait until NAB2018 before making any purchases for the simple fact that BMD MAY release something new.

Tim I hope to god BM READ your post here.. because that’s everything I’m dreaming they would announce at nab ..and of course a turret for the big URSA

DaVinci Resolve 15 adds numerous new editing features, Fairlight audio mixing features, and some more color tools. Resolve 15 is so impressive that it makes everyone in the industry switch over to it as the main NLE in all post houses. Text graphics are greatly improved. Graphics integration even better and rivals Adobe's Motion Graphic Templates for After Effects & Premiere Pro. Avid and Premiere cease to be used.

Fusion gets a huge performance improvement and many new features. Graphics templates can be made for use in Resolve. Maya Lite comes with Fusion for building 3D assets.

New 4.6K Sensor that is Global Shutter and 15 stops of dynamic range at a base ISO of 800. Ability to go to 3200 ISO. GPS & Gyroscope successfully added to this new URSA Mini Pro 2.0 camera that has the new 4.6K sensor. Built in wireless monitoring that works with...

Video Assists 2.0: 5" & 7" sizes that both have the ability to do wireless monitoring. Attachable sun hoods.

Blackmagic HDR 17" Monitor for on set monitoring. Additionally Blackmagic 24" & 30" color grading monitors that support Rec709, P3, and Rec2020 HDR (HDR10+ & Dolby Vision). Calibration of monitor made easy with DaVinci Resolve 15.

I could keep dreaming up some awesome products. But I think I'll let others come up with wish list items.

From what I was told from the BM guys that Fusion announcements will be done at SIGGRAPH like it was done this year from now on. I asked them about a color correcting monitors and they told me for something like that they try to buy an existing company already making them and build off of the technology and not start off from scratch. But who knows.

A good NLE, ideally standalone, with an interface like FCP7, at a reasonable price point.

The windows, the timeline, all should have the capability to move and adjust and the NLE should be able to work in a double monitor setting. A cinema view in the second monitor.

Unlike FCP7, this NLE should be able to handle all codecs.

The NLE should be able to send and receive the timeline seamlessly from Resolve, Fairlight and Fusion.

This would kill Avid MC, FCPX and Premier Pro for sure.

I've recently sold off much of my audio/band/music equipment in hopes to buy some camera gear.

I'm going to wait until NAB2018 before making any purchases for the simple fact that BMD MAY release something new.

Going to speculate here based on recent trends.

BMD stopped announcing new tech at tech events. Now they just announce it (shipping at announcement...good job BMD) and then show them at those trade shows. My theory is, they don't want to drown in all that tech noise at major events like NAB. BMD having announced the Broadcast URSA recently, will most likely be showing off the family of broadcast products at NAB as opposed to announcing new cams. At the time of typing this, It's about two weeks out - no new announcements...i would't hold my breathe for new cameras.

A good NLE, ideally standalone, with an interface like FCP7, at a reasonable price point.

The windows, the timeline, all should have the capability to move and adjust and the NLE should be able to work in a double monitor setting. A cinema view in the second monitor.

Unlike FCP7, this NLE should be able to handle all codecs.

The NLE should be able to send and receive the timeline seamlessly from Resolve, Fairlight and Fusion.

This would kill Avid MC, FCPX and Premier Pro for sure.

What from your wishlist does Resolve not do now ?

JB

Exactly what Micheal says.. You probabbly will only see a few software updates rolling out to give new features..

And probabbly the Shading panel will be out in the open for the first time... (guess they will try to push to at least show it to the public for NAB. so they can release it mid summer..

What from your wishlist does Resolve not do now ?

JB

I was wondering the same thing. And even for ONLY an NLE, $300 is less than Resolve would be worth, IMO. Even if at $300 the Fairlight and Color tabs were MIA, it would still be quite a bit less expensive than Adobe's bugware. I mean, NLE. Throw in a DAW and a Hollywood-grade color suite, and $300 starts looking ridiculous, rather than merely a good value.

Anyway... my guess is that we'll be seeing yet another major Resolve update.

It's already getting people off of Avid, and it has the ENTIRE post industry shifting strategies. Even FilmLight introduced a free student edition because of Resolve 14... but what every major color grade suite does that Resolve doesn't is compositing, so I'm guessing that compositing is going to be a significant new feature, either with more seamless integration with Fusion, or by building Fusion's image processing engine into Resolve and putting a large nail in the Flame coffin.

The editing tools will probably be enhanced; based on BMD's history, it will be a better NLE than Premiere by a long shot (it's already closer than I imagine Adobe would like), and shift a lot more production houses off of Avid, especially ones that already use Resolve for color grading.

Hardware wise, we might see some updates to the field monitors, some new micros, but nothing on the flagship front; BMD will probably wait until it has a big update for that, rather than doing the incremental update thing. I have a feeling that the emphasis will be on an OLPF, higher frame rates, and higher frame rates. Possibly some new Fairlight panels also, something affordable. Hopefully some nicely portable control surfaces for Resolve that geared toward editors, as well.

More training programs and resources. I'm hoping for a grading monitor also, preferably one that's made for HDR. Maybe a Thunderbolt 3 version of the 8K Decklink?

Hey...what if BM got into the Lens business? Thats part of the production pipeline they have never ventured into. They do amazing post and unmatched production solutions. Not lenses though. Wouldn't that be something? Buuuuuttttt, Not too many lens changes in single operator/production houses to justify the investment in R&D. I have the same set of EF lenses for the last 6 years...only added sigma Art lenses a couple years ago. But hey....imagine a set of BM primes to match their cinema line. With lens metadata. With MFT, EF, and PL versions of lenses. Or a" PL deep" lens with some titanium sockets to allow adaption to EF, E and MFT? T2 or wider. VV ready. Parfocal even. Not even APOcorrected, those are special lenses. will take SOME minimal breathing with these imaginary specs. And acceptable flaring and minimal ghosting though.
While am at it, the number to the next mega millions jackpot.

Well, not a prediction per sé ...more of wishful thinking.

If BM makes lenses that arent too expensive and are near telecentric, thatd be amazing.

But its so far from what they do, I doubt it.

Hey...what if BM got into the Lens business? Thats part of the production pipeline they have never ventured into. They do amazing post and unmatched production solutions. Not lenses though. Wouldn't that be something? Buuuuuttttt, Not too many lens changes in single operator/production houses to justify the investment in R&D. I have the same set of EF lenses for the last 6 years...only added sigma Art lenses a couple years ago. But hey....imagine a set of BM primes to match their cinema line. With lens metadata. With MFT, EF, and PL versions of lenses. Or a" PL deep" lens with some titanium sockets to allow adaption to EF, E and MFT? T2 or wider. VV ready. Parfocal even. Not even APOcorrected, those are special lenses. will take SOME minimal breathing with these imaginary specs. And acceptable flaring and minimal ghosting though.
While am at it, the number to the next mega millions jackpot.

Well, not a prediction per sé ...more of wishful thinking.

If they did that it would be if an existing lens company sold their business to them. Doubt they would even remotely go near that right now.

Making lenses is a very highly specialized art and science, it is not something you just start without any previous optical experience. Zeiss and Schneider have been at it for more than 100 years, Leica not that far behind. The newcomers in this game also came from optical or photographic optical backgrounds, SLR Magic and Veydra come to mind. Blackmagic would have to buy an existing lens manufacturing company, or get their staff, as lens manufacturing is not something you just start up.
Cheers

What from your wishlist does Resolve not do now ?

JB

Plenty. Some of them are:

1. The size of windows are not flexible, nor their positions. An editor should have the flexibility to do that, suiting his style of editing.
2. In a two-monitor setup, the second monitor is of no use for an editor.
3. Full frame playback to a third monitor through Decklink card is buggy, specially when you have clips of different size and different fps. Trying to adjust image scaling in setup doesn't help.
4. MP4 files don't play well in Resolve in OSX, much better situation in Premier.
5. Does not export OMF.
6. Multi Timeline Tab is not there.
7. Multi-Project Workflows not there.

A professional editor uses an NLE for editing, not for colour or sound. Those things are normally left for professionals in the respective fields.

To me, Resolve edit page still is a place to conform for colour (and maybe sound, for people using Fairlight, I am not into that), but it's not yet a full-fledged NLE. After several improvements in DR14, it's still not where a good NLE should be, forcing me to fall back again on other available options.

Btw, maybe my posting in Cinematography forum was an entirely wrong decision!

Well, today Blackmagic Design announced a new Developer Website on Facebook:

Today we released the new Blackmagic Developer website. These new dedicated pages provide developers with a single location for all documentation for developing products and custom solutions for broadcast, professional AV, live production and post production. Get fully documented SDKs, protocols, APIs and sample code for video capture and playback devices, live production switchers, cameras, routers, decks and more. Because our products are cross platform, any code you write with our SDKs is also cross platform, which means that your code is as reusable as possible. It also means it's common between different product models within a family, so developers can quickly adopt to the latest products and standards without having to rewrite code. Download one of the SDKs, check out the sample code and start developing today!
Free download now from www.blackmagicdesign.com/developer

So that is something worth noting. This could be included in the NAB 2018 Announcements if simply for allowing easier access for Developers.

Does that mean for the pocket camera too?

Would have been good 5 years ago to speed up the pocket. Now it is like it's not worth it.

what if BM got into the Lens business?

Well lenses is always a tricky business.. Good glass is expensive and needs a lot of R&D and controlled production process to make them..

But in case they buy out a company that does make lenses.. I guess somewere down the line there will be PTZ camera based on the Micro studio camera sensor, doing 12G-sdi, with integrated 20x zoom lens..
** Yes i may keep wishing right..

Hey...what if BM got into the Lens business?

Heck, what if they got into the automobile business?

To me, Resolve edit page still is a place to conform for colour (and maybe sound, for people using Fairlight, I am not into that), but it's not yet a full-fledged NLE. After several improvements in DR14, it's still not where a good NLE should be, forcing me to fall back again on other available options.

It is at a level where it's enticing studios off of Avid already -- studios doing post work on fairly big serials, as well as a few features. It has a way to go before it can be considered best of breed, but it's definitely up to the task of professional level editing. BMD has been paying a lot of attention to what professional editors are asking for, apparently.

I have a feeling that v15 is going to entice even more editors on board. Most of the rest of the post industry is expecting exactly that, and isn't waiting for BMD's next shoe to drop to develop a new strategy. Avid has free version of Media Composer, SGO is working on an "affordable" version of Mistika, Assimilate is even planning on enhancing its tree view to make Scratch into a node-based compositor/color suite... yeah, it's causing a big shakeup. This is good, because there hasn't been much genuine competition in the NLE industry for a long time.

Btw, maybe my posting in Cinematography forum was an entirely wrong decision!

There's really no clear choice for a thread like this, since most people are looking for cameras from BMD anyway.

really hoping for a new mini... i think they can still do better... usable 1600... global shutter... gyro,gps... improved connections... not a handle that the hex key can barely get to it... more streamline... improved color/sensor ... higher frame rates... 240 @ 1080p would be amazing w/o windowing sensor. and 4k at 120fps would be great. SDI ports that don't break... ive had 2 go on me... not cool... spend a little more money and make it great... make the xls ports better... they stick EVERYTIME, make the screen either better or gone... i use and external monitor. improve on design...EVF could be less intense... i think the hot rods mod is way better... doesn't need a tank attached to it. more raw options. maybe uptown 10:1 option. Also maybe a couple more pro connections.. like lemo and more power to power Wireless FF.I don't need more resolution but it probably would be a 6k sensor. love these cameras! keep making them better.

With the sensor faster read out times, the difference between Global and Rolling Shutter is getting less.
Yes the UM and Pro could do with some fine tuning, especially the XLR and BNC connectors used.
As for faster shutter speeds, 120 without window, the current sensor readout time is too slow. Even the faster Panny EVA1 sensor, has to window down to MFT size to get 120fps.

Frank, what you are describing, short of the GS, is the Panny EVA1, which costs $8K, and their LCD monitor is not as good as the UM Pro! That said, you can not eliminate the LCDon either camera, as it is the menu control interface (touch screen).
Cheers

I couldn't care less about 6K, but I would really love to see an "open-gate" type sensor option for anamorphic. Maybe large format like Kinefinity is releasing. Honestly though, the Ursa Mini Pro is still nearly perfect IMO.

Something I forgot in my original post: Stereo 3D Left & Right Eye designators for the camera for when configured in Beamsplitter Rig. Even Side-by-Side rigs benefit from this. The URSA Mini can easily be used for S3D. So I would love for an S3D toggle to be in the menu, and when switched on you can say whether the camera is Left or Right and have that info added to the metadata.

I know not everyone is interested in shooting S3D, but having the option makes having the tools all the better. Plus you can easily edit and grade S3D in Resolve.


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So that is something worth noting. This could be included in the NAB 2018 Announcements if simply for allowing easier access for Developers.

I went to the link, it's just the camera control like what was promised for the iPad app but its not actually available yet.

A good NLE, ideally standalone, with an interface like FCP7, at a reasonable price point.... This would kill Avid MC, FCPX and Premier Pro for sure.

It's already there. It's called Lightworks 14.5 and has been quietly working away helping creative editors make popular feature films for nearly thirty years.

Great software, not so great marketing.

But I'm working on an article... what other NLE would let you edit 8K on an ultrabook? And play nicely with color grading software...

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1080x1920 windowed recording on Ursa family. I wish I was kidding.

i know BMD has said "there's enough formats available for the UM already," but i would love something like an 6:1 or 8:1 Raw, that would open up the possibility to higher frame rates on bigger windows, right?

1) thinner Lighter video assist with more NITs that can compete with the shogun
2) 4.6k Turret
3) New sensor over 5K maybe even 6, global shutter and or slowMo capable ursa mini
4) Big Ursa 2.0 carbon? lighter?
5) and of course the next davinci

1080x1920 windowed recording on Ursa family. I wish I was kidding.

Is this for Vertical Video? To be honest, that's not a bad suggestion. I already have one client who wants to see if we can do some Instagram Story and Snapchat videos. (Shudders) I said I'd think about it.

HARDWARE

1) Micro Cinema V2 with a S16 2.3K cut of the 4.6K sensor, UHS-II slot for uncompressed 60P RAW or 60P ProRes 444 in camera on SDs

2) Smaller UM without monitor and with a target weight under 1500 grams, SDI AND HDMI 2.0 outs and 2x or even 3x 12V Lemo 2 pin outputs

3) New 4:3 sensor with the same architecture of the 4.6K with 4608x3456 resolution so a vertical height close to 35mm 4perf

4) Better genuine V-Mount plate, current one is really really sh*tty made, maybe better to just buy the IDX one in bulk and offer only that one, less markup probably but much much more reliable and light years ahead

5) 5" and 7" VideoAssist 2.0 with 4K DCI 60P inputs, ProRes444, better panels (gamut, brightness, fidelity, etc), thinner edges and capable of managing the more UM camera settings using the SDI commands as used on BMD broadcast products.
(very useful for gimbals, steadicams, cranes, and remote POV)

6) 17" 12G 4K field display possibly using the new Panasonic IPS Pro panels, rugged, reliable, PEAKING + LUTS + 4x ZOOM + FALSE COLOR + ANA DE-SQUEEZE or even better custom crop and custom scaling and custom framelines, soft and hard case options

7) 24" 12G 4K studio display possibly using the new Panasonic IPS Pro panels and with 12bit 444 inputs and internal processing, internal LUT calibration manageable automagically within Resolve or its Utility, calibration is finally a breeze!

RESOLVE

1) Embedded calibration of an external monitor connected to a BMD card, directly inside Resolve using major probes on the market without going the DisplayCal route (or other sw)...

2) Option to add timelines with different raster sizes than the project settings

3) Easier, immediate way to restore autosaves

That is more of a “wish” list. Regarding a smaller UM without the monitor, how are you going to set the menus, which are based in a touch screen monitor to set? What you are ending up with is the Micro Camera, with a larger sensor. A more realistic approach would be a camera similar to the Panny EVA1, with its smaller, moveable Monitor. Long live S16!

If BM had not chosen to resuse the larger UM Pro body, the new Broadcast S16/1-inch sensor csmera could have been closer in size to the EVA1, with a new shoulder kit option that would allow easy shoulder mount, and once removed, would reduce the size for Studio and gimbal use. Also, the Broadcast camera should have been a new front end, allowing switchable B4, active MFT, and PL mounts; with the EF and Nikon using existing MFT adapters. The draw back for me with the UrsaPro form factor is size, weight, and lack of a MFT mount on its new 1-inch sensor. If the new Broadcast camera had the MFT option, and been closer in Size to the EVA1, I would have jumped right in and bought one.
Cheers

... If the new Broadcast camera had the MFT option, and been closer I. Size to the EVA1, I would have jumped right in and bought one....

+1

1080x1920 windowed recording on Ursa family. I wish I was kidding.

Is this for Vertical Video? To be honest, that's not a bad suggestion. I already have one client who wants to see if we can do some Instagram Story and Snapchat videos. (Shudders) I said I'd think about it.

Yep. Our crew would like the ability to shoot vertical, rather than turn cameras on their sides. As long as social platforms are buying content, clients are not going to stop asking for vertical or 1:1 video.

I'm hoping for a travel panel for resolve, something comfortable to slip amongst carry on.

On the subject of lenses: Could they partner with a smaller lens company like SLR magic and help fill out the APO prime set? In Philadelphia I have access to rentals like the 32mm Ultra Prime. Owning a 32mm or 21mm SLR magic prime would be ideal.

The 32mm APO SLR Magic lens is coming very soon.
Cheers

1080x1920 windowed recording on Ursa family. I wish I was kidding.

Is this for Vertical Video? To be honest, that's not a bad suggestion. I already have one client who wants to see if we can do some Instagram Story and Snapchat videos. (Shudders) I said I'd think about it.

Yep. Our crew would like the ability to shoot vertical, rather than turn cameras on their sides. As long as social platforms are buying content, clients are not going to stop asking for vertical or 1:1 video.

Probably will never happen so just turn the camera on the side. Most cheap tripods have the ability to do that. Easy and done. Who is asking for vertical videos. Everyone I know hates vertical videos and always says "Why can't they turn the smart phone horizontally"

1080x1920 windowed recording on Ursa family. I wish I was kidding.

Would it be any better shooting @ 90 degrees? so... 9x16?

Never mind. saw the responses

If you wish, there’s a reasonable workaround that isn’t as efficient with managing your space requirements but would still be better than not getting a job because the camera didn’t shoot 1080x1920: shoot the anamorphic format 3072x2560 and then in post create your deliverables. You could scale down one quarter to get your proper height and your timeline would look like 2304x1920 and then crop the sides to 1080x1920. Tape over each side of the monitor to judge the frame when you’re composing your shot. Or better, eyeball your composition and reframe in post.


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Probably will never happen so just turn the camera on the side. Most cheap tripods have the ability to do that. Easy and done. Who is asking for vertical videos. Everyone I know hates vertical videos and always says "Why can't they turn the smart phone horizontally"

That's what we're doing now. The content is for distribution to a mobile platform that favors the vertical format.

If you wish, there’s a reasonable workaround that isn’t as efficient with managing your space requirements but would still be better than not getting a job because the camera didn’t shoot 1080x1920: shoot the anamorphic format 3072x2560 and then in post create your deliverables. You could scale down one quarter to get your proper height and your timeline would look like 2304x1920 and then crop the sides to 1080x1920. Tape over each side of the monitor to judge the frame when you’re composing your shot. Or better, eyeball your composition and reframe in post.

We discussed shooting to card in higher resolution, but decided against it because of the media management. It would be worth if it we could get the desired format right away, but sideways to the decks isn't as bad as it sounds, since all the shots are lock-offs.

Probably will never happen so just turn the camera on the side. Most cheap tripods have the ability to do that. Easy and done. Who is asking for vertical videos. Everyone I know hates vertical videos and always says "Why can't they turn the smart phone horizontally"

That's what we're doing now. The content is for distribution to a mobile platform that favors the vertical format.

Ahhh.

This is long overdue but a new BMPCC with a decent preamp, 2.5k 60p ProRes (RAW would be nice but not that important in my opinion), much bigger battery, IBIS (that would change everything) and decent touch screen. That would be the perfect camera for beginners and run-n-gun shoots/adeventures. I would prefer if they made it bigger, closer to something like Fuji X-T2. I don't quite understand why they haven't updated it yet, hopefully they will this year...

Who is asking for vertical videos. Everyone I know hates vertical videos and always says "Why can't they turn the smart phone horizontally"

I had this marketing person for some energy powder ask me about creating some video content they could use on Instagram Stories & Snapchat. When I asked if they meant Vertical video they said "yes."

There are the purists (like me) who prefer video to be horizontal. I personally never have shot vertical video with my phone. But, it's the "hip" new thing. People who are not in Film & Video are going to ask for it because it's a platform now. Why? I don't know, I guess I'm old. But, it is something that I've noticed a few more people are asking for now that it exists.

Yeah man, it's getting crazy. Companies are utilizing video for apps, and for Instagram that want vertical. Vertical would be a good option on the UM, but until then I'd either turn the camera sideways, or use 4.6K and crop out of the center.

I don't quite understand why they haven't updated it yet

They've explained why - first because they're not releasing any more cams that aren't 4k and second because they haven't yet solved the heat issues of BM IQ @ 4k in a small camera.

We pretty much all hope that they've got that solved for this NAB.

To get a decent IQ in 4K recorded internally to ProRes, etc., you are going to need a csmera the size of a GH5, Panasonic worked it out with their GH5S, but still have fairly compressed Codecs.

The Micro Studio can outout a dece;t 4K image from is 1-inch sensor, but to takemthismsensor tomits limit, required a much larger video processor and cooling system, so the camera ended up in a Ursa Mini Pro body, to give a familiar form factor in a “Broadcast market, but this camera also does FilmLog and can record internally to Raw, ProRes and DNxHD codecs. I think this new csmera could have been in a little smaller package, like the Panny EVA1, but BM already had the Mini Pro body and using it saved money.

Every camera is a compromise in size, form, and functionality, and all are all tied together. Expecting a Ursa Mini Pro functionality in a Pocket csmera size package is a little unrealistic with today’s avail tech. Maybe tomorrow?
Cheers

How about a modular BMPCC? Add modules based off of what you need.
HFR module,
Broadcast module
Vlogging module
Hmmmm?