Blackmagic Forum

My dealer told me that there's an order backlog of over 30000 units of the BMDCC. That's cool! For the company and for those guys ordered back months ago. But what about us. The new orderers? Let do some calculations: Blackmagic starts mass production tomorrow (would be fine, wouldn't it?) Let's say they produce 1000 units per month. 30000 divided by 1000 ... hmm ... around ... yes, 30 month. Uuuuhuhu, waiting nearly 3 year for a digital product. UPS can deliver it directly to a museum. The market will change for 720 degree in that period. So what about us?
If it true with the 30000 units I will not spend my money on a historic machines.

Especially Blackmagic stuff, what do you think?

Kind regards
Hamberger

In my opinion 30,000 in pre-orders sounds ridiculous. I'd say it's probably around 3,000 pre-orders worldwide or at least within 4 digits.

Hmmm, all the many cities worldwide. I'd say a little more than 3000. I'd say around 10000.

I'd also put the number closer to 10,000...I also believe their manufacturing capacity is greater than 1000 units a month...but I'm completely guessing on both counts!

Hopefully we get another update soon

IF the problem is just with the sensor and IF they start to receive large batches of working sensors from the manufacturer, their production runs should be capable of far more than 1000 a week. However at this stage, I'm beginning to question whether they can solve the problem in good enough time to salvage pre-orders.

My own guesses at production/sales:

From the supply side: In one of Grant Petty's early "updates", he alluded to a warehouse full of $20 million in parts. If I assume that the cost of these parts (I'm not counting sensors and I'm assuming that $20 refers to cost, not potential revenue) to BMD is about $500, then I would estimate their short-term capacity (read orders or projected orders) to be around 40,000 units. The $500 cost takes into account that R&D, sensor, assembly, etc. are unaccounted for. Obviously, this is pure speculation on their cost structure. But, I doubt I am off by much more than a factor of 2 in either direction. Therefore, I would guess that short-term (one to two calendar quarters) production capacity is in the 20,000 to 80,000 range.

From the demand side: A forum member here recently quoted a B&H rep indicating that they had about 800 pre-orders (and no, I don't take this as fact, but...). Assuming that B&H has about 20% of the US pre-orders (again, probably off, but probably not by more than a factor of 2), then this estimates the U.S. pre-orders to be about 4,000 (or in the 2,000 to 8,000 range). If the U.S. represents about 25% of the global market (based on Canon revenue), this puts global demand/pre-orders at around 16,000 (or in the 8,000 to 32,000 range).

Putting supply and demand together (can't help it, I'm an economist), 20,000-30,000 units seems reasonable and I would expect them to have the capacity to fulfill this quantity in fairly short order.

Of course, this all rests on the assumption of any production at all, for which we have little indication.

Well, I don't ever pre-order stuff...unless it's a game and I'm getting some free DLC or a t-shirt, dammit. Anyway, until I see "ships in 24 hours" on a website purchase button, I don't throw my hard-earned cash at anyone. I'm rarely even a first-gen buyer at that, but I've read enough good things to give the BMCC a go. However, I still need to hold it in my hands, first. I'll get to that soon.

But, I have my "money for a new camera" fund chilling in the bank and until I'm ready to spend it I have equipment to get me through. I've waited a long time for 3K for $3K and it's finally kinda happening. I can wait a few more months if I need to. Come April I'll see what's up at NAB, but I hope to have the camera by then. Also, when/if version 2 comes out, I'll probably buy it too if all works out with v1...then I'll have two cameras that will have paid for themselves in a matter of weeks...imagine that.

Until I have it in my hands, though, imagining the BMCC is all I can do.

Jason Greene wrote:My own guesses at production/sales:

From the supply side: In one of Grant Petty's early "updates", he alluded to a warehouse full of $20 million in parts. If I assume that the cost of these parts (I'm not counting sensors and I'm assuming that $20 refers to cost, not potential revenue) to BMD is about $500, then I would estimate their short-term capacity (read orders or projected orders) to be around 40,000 units. The $500 cost takes into account that R&D, sensor, assembly, etc. are unaccounted for. Obviously, this is pure speculation on their cost structure. But, I doubt I am off by much more than a factor of 2 in either direction. Therefore, I would guess that short-term (one to two calendar quarters) production capacity is in the 20,000 to 80,000 range.

From the demand side: A forum member here recently quoted a B&H rep indicating that they had about 800 pre-orders (and no, I don't take this as fact, but...). Assuming that B&H has about 20% of the US pre-orders (again, probably off, but probably not by more than a factor of 2), then this estimates the U.S. pre-orders to be about 4,000 (or in the 2,000 to 8,000 range). If the U.S. represents about 25% of the global market (based on Canon revenue), this puts global demand/pre-orders at around 16,000 (or in the 8,000 to 32,000 range).

Putting supply and demand together (can't help it, I'm an economist), 20,000-30,000 units seems reasonable and I would expect them to have the capacity to fulfill this quantity in fairly short order.

Of course, this all rests on the assumption of any production at all, for which we have little indication.

Until I have it in my hands, though, imagining the BMCC is all I can do.[/quote]

That is impressive, to speculate with such sophistication. And your final numbers might only be off by...400%. Well, when I finally get my camera, I might get one camera or they might ship me four.
I'm just kidding, it's all mental gymnastics at this point.

No way of verifying this but the sales guy over the phone told me that there was already over 2000 orders between Adorama and B&H alone. There are hundreds of dealers in the USA. Obviously most don't deal with as much volume but I would guess the number of cameras ordered world wide is much more than 3,000. 30,000 Seems quite high though. There's probably 10 to 20 stores worldwide that are selling a bunch of these and then hundreds that are selling them in lower volume.