Pyxis with Dynamic Range of 16 Stops

Is it completely unrealistic to hope for a Pyxis or similarly priced future camera with a dynamic range of 16 or more stops?

Yes
(at least for several years)

If you rate dynamic range conservatively/realistically like Arri does (approximately @ SNR2 afaik), only one camera currently has 16 stops DR, the Alexa 35.

Before the Alexa 35, for more than 10 years the Amira/Alexas had the largest dynamic range with about 14 stops. No other manufacturer came close (despite their own marketing numbers).

I know BMD rate the Cine Ursa with 16 stops but I'll wait for that number to get fact checked in independent tests @SNR2.

Pyxis and the BMCC6K use the same third-party sensor which helps keep the price lower, but is limited by a lower dynamic range that apparently BMD can’t affect.

The URSA Cine 12K/17K use BMD’s proprietary sensor design with a custom colour filter array defining as many clear (white) photosites as there are total RGB photosites. There are an equal number of red, green, and blue photosites. The photosites are each a tiny 2.9 microns, but exposure and detail is determined by referencing a 6x6 matrix of photosites, not a single photosite. Complex but the payoff is the claim of 16 stops dynamic range.

So maybe this proprietary BM sensor tech will trickle down one day to a lower cost, mass produced sensor for a 6K resolution camera.
2025 would be fantastic, but VERY unlikely.

An 8K RGBW BMD design would have photosites 4.39 microns which is twice the area of a 2.9 micron sensor. That would be my recommendation for a Pyxis Pro or whatever they call a second generation Pyxis. 8K would help to differentiate it from the URSA Cine 12K camera but hopefully share the 16 stops dynamic range. Capture could be 4K with the field of view of the 8K 36mm x 24mm sensor and use dual CFexpress 2TB cards.

The cost might be $5-6K, so definitely a step up from the current Pyxis but a bridge between the ‘budget’ cameras and the Cine 12K with its 8TB media.